Magnitude 4.3 earthquake · MPanama

IVExpected intensity: Light: windows, doors and dishes rattled

When: 7 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC
Depth: 15.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 87 km
MMI III ≤ 38 km
MMI IV ≤ 13 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 5

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 24%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 63%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	63%≈ 1.37	82%≈ 3.03	89%≈ 4.45
M ≥ 4	12%≈ 0.14	24%≈ 0.30	32%≈ 0.45
M ≥ 5	1%≈ 0.01	3%≈ 0.03	4%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 6	0.1%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.3 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 22:21 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.464)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.3M	10 Oct 2026, 15:34:21 UTC	—	15.0 km	—	PANAMA