Magnitude 4.7 earthquake · MB8 km N of La Tronosa, Panama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 8 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 03:56 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: USGS; Reviewed

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 138 km
MMI III ≤ 64 km
MMI IV ≤ 29 km
MMI V ≤ 11 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 6

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 25%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 59%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	59%≈ 1.46	78%≈ 3.33	84%≈ 4.94
M ≥ 4	13%≈ 0.15	25%≈ 0.33	33%≈ 0.49
M ≥ 5	1%≈ 0.02	3%≈ 0.03	5%≈ 0.05
M ≥ 6	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.5%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.7 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 11:39 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.898)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
USGS ★	4.7MB	10 Oct 2026, 03:56:17 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	8 km N of La Tronosa, Panama
EMSC	4.7MB	10 Oct 2026, 03:56:17 UTC	±0.0 s	10.0 km	0.0 km	PANAMA