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Magnitude 4.4 earthquake · MB2 km WSW of Llano de Piedra, Panama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell
When
13 hr ago
Depth
10.0 km
From you
Source
USGS
Reviewed
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

2 km WSW of Llano de Piedra, PanamaNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 100 km
  • MMI III ≤ 46 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 20 km
  • MMI V ≤ 5.0 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 10

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 22%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 56%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 356%≈ 1.0680%≈ 2.7088%≈ 4.20
M ≥ 410%≈ 0.1122%≈ 0.2731%≈ 0.42
M ≥ 51%≈ 0.013%≈ 0.034%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 60.1%≈ <0.010.3%≈ <0.010.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.4 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.528)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
USGS ★4.4MB—10.0 km—2 km WSW of Llano de Piedra, Panama
EMSC4.3M±0.0 s10.0 km0.0 kmPANAMA
Revision history (2)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.5M10.0 km7.632°N 80.668°W
EMSC4.3M10.0 km7.632°N 80.668°W