Magnitude 4.4 earthquake · MPanama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 20 hr ago; 9 Oct 2026, 22:41 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 100 km
MMI III ≤ 46 km
MMI IV ≤ 20 km
MMI V ≤ 5.0 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 7

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 18%, and of magnitude 5 or more 2%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 45%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	45%≈ 0.72	75%≈ 2.09	85%≈ 3.42
M ≥ 4	7%≈ 0.07	18%≈ 0.21	27%≈ 0.34
M ≥ 5	0.7%≈ <0.01	2%≈ 0.02	3%≈ 0.03
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ <0.01	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.4 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.569)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.4M	9 Oct 2026, 22:41:13 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	PANAMA