Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MB10 km SE of Pedasí, Panama

When: 5 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: USGS; Reviewed

Expected intensity

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1

4.1Panama10 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 20%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 55%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	55%≈ 1.23	72%≈ 2.59	79%≈ 3.71
M ≥ 4	11%≈ 0.12	20%≈ 0.26	27%≈ 0.37
M ≥ 5	1%≈ 0.01	3%≈ 0.03	4%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 6	0.1%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 11:54 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.862)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
USGS ★	4.5MB	10 Oct 2026, 06:47:49 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	10 km SE of Pedasí, Panama
EMSC	4.5MB	10 Oct 2026, 06:47:49 UTC	±0.0 s	10.0 km	0.0 km	SOUTH OF PANAMA