Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MB5 km N of Oria Arriba, Panama

When: 12 hr ago; 9 Oct 2026, 19:42 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: USGS; Reviewed

Expected intensity

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

No aftershocks recorded yet.

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 4%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.5%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 15%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	15%≈ 0.19	28%≈ 0.48	36%≈ 0.74
M ≥ 4	2%≈ 0.02	4%≈ 0.05	7%≈ 0.07
M ≥ 5	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.5%≈ <0.01	0.7%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.642)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
USGS ★	4.5MB	9 Oct 2026, 19:42:50 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	5 km N of Oria Arriba, Panama
EMSC	4.5MB	9 Oct 2026, 19:42:50 UTC	±0.0 s	10.0 km	0.0 km	PANAMA