Magnitude 4.1 earthquake · MPanama

VIExpected intensity: Strong: everyone frightened, furniture moved, plaster fell

When: 14 hr ago; 12 Oct 2026, 18:40 UTC
Depth: 2.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 70 km
MMI III ≤ 35 km
MMI IV ≤ 16 km
MMI V ≤ 7.9 km
MMI VI ≤ 3.3 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 6%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.6%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 19%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	19%≈ 0.24	38%≈ 0.62	49%≈ 0.97
M ≥ 4	2%≈ 0.02	6%≈ 0.06	9%≈ 0.10
M ≥ 5	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.6%≈ <0.01	1.0%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ <0.01	0.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.1 or more).

Computed: 13 Oct 2026, 08:22 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.943)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.1M	12 Oct 2026, 18:40:54 UTC	—	2.0 km	—	PANAMA