Magnitude 4.3 earthquake · MPanama

VIExpected intensity: Strong: everyone frightened, furniture moved, plaster fell

When: 2 hr ago; 11 Oct 2026, 22:09 UTC
Depth: 3.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 87 km
MMI III ≤ 40 km
MMI IV ≤ 20 km
MMI V ≤ 9.2 km
MMI VI ≤ 3.4 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 21%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 58%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	58%≈ 1.51	72%≈ 2.70	78%≈ 3.66
M ≥ 4	13%≈ 0.15	21%≈ 0.27	26%≈ 0.37
M ≥ 5	1%≈ 0.02	3%≈ 0.03	4%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 6	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.3 or more).

Computed: 11 Oct 2026, 23:58 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.757)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.3M	11 Oct 2026, 22:09:33 UTC	—	3.0 km	—	PANAMA

Revision history (1)

Source	Magnitude	Time	Depth	Coordinates	Received
EMSC	4.0M	11 Oct 2026, 22:09:33 UTC	5.0 km	7.544°N 80.356°W	11 Oct 2026, 22:15:27 UTC