Magnitude 4.2 earthquake · MPanama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 3 hr ago; 11 Oct 2026, 13:49 UTC
Depth: 5.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 81 km
MMI III ≤ 38 km
MMI IV ≤ 17 km
MMI V ≤ 7.1 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 15%, and of magnitude 5 or more 2%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 48%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	48%≈ 0.95	63%≈ 1.79	70%≈ 2.47
M ≥ 4	9%≈ 0.10	15%≈ 0.18	19%≈ 0.25
M ≥ 5	0.9%≈ 0.01	2%≈ 0.02	2%≈ 0.03
M ≥ 6	0.1%≈ <0.01	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.2 or more).

Computed: 11 Oct 2026, 16:28 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.797)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.2M	11 Oct 2026, 13:49:43 UTC	—	5.0 km	—	PANAMA