Magnitude 4.6 earthquake · MBLoyalty Islands

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 14 days ago; 27 Sept 2026, 01:58 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 118 km
MMI III ≤ 54 km
MMI IV ≤ 25 km
MMI V ≤ 8.4 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 7

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 4%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.4%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 6%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	6%≈ 0.07	30%≈ 0.39	58%≈ 1.10
M ≥ 4	0.7%≈ <0.01	4%≈ 0.04	10%≈ 0.11
M ≥ 5	<0.1%≈ <0.01	0.4%≈ <0.01	1%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ 0.00	0.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.6 or more).

Computed: 11 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.765)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.6MB	27 Sept 2026, 01:58:13 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	LOYALTY ISLANDS