Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MPanama-Costa Rica Border Region

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 7 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 12:49 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 108 km
MMI III ≤ 50 km
MMI IV ≤ 23 km
MMI V ≤ 6.3 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1

4.5Panama-Costa Rica Border Region10 Oct 2026, 17:40 UTC

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 5%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.6%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 18%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	18%≈ 0.26	31%≈ 0.59	39%≈ 0.87
M ≥ 4	2%≈ 0.03	5%≈ 0.06	8%≈ 0.09
M ≥ 5	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.6%≈ <0.01	0.9%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ <0.01	<0.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 20:15 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.624)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.5M	10 Oct 2026, 12:49:18 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION