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Deprem

Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MB5 km WNW of Guarumal, Panama

When
4 hr ago
Depth
10.0 km
From you
Source
USGS
Reviewed
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

5 km WNW of Guarumal, PanamaNatural Earth

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 42%, and of magnitude 5 or more 6%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 83%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 383%≈ 3.2093%≈ 6.4196%≈ 9.05
M ≥ 425%≈ 0.3242%≈ 0.6451%≈ 0.91
M ≥ 53%≈ 0.036%≈ 0.068%≈ 0.09
M ≥ 60.3%≈ <0.010.6%≈ <0.010.9%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

2 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.4)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
USGS ★4.5MB—10.0 km—5 km WNW of Guarumal, Panama
EMSC4.5MB±0.0 s10.0 km0.0 kmPANAMA
Revision history (1)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.8M10.0 km8.478°N 82.541°W