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Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MPanama

VIIExpected intensity: Very strong: hard to stand, damage to weak buildings
When
2 hr ago
Depth
2.0 km
From you
Source
EMSC
Automatic
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

PanamaNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 108 km
  • MMI III ≤ 50 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 25 km
  • MMI V ≤ 12 km
  • MMI VI ≤ 5.4 km
  • MMI VII ≤ 2.0 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 8%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.9%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 28%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 328%≈ 0.5039%≈ 0.9346%≈ 1.27
M ≥ 45%≈ 0.058%≈ 0.0910%≈ 0.13
M ≥ 50.5%≈ <0.010.9%≈ <0.011%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ <0.01<0.1%≈ <0.010.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.574)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC ★4.5M—2.0 km—PANAMA
Revision history (1)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.2M10.0 km7.635°N 80.555°W