Magnitude 4.6 earthquake · MB31 km SE of Vanimo, Papua New Guinea

IIIExpected intensity: Weak: felt indoors, like a passing truck

When: 19 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 09:42 UTC
Depth: 30.4 km
From you
Source: USGS; Reviewed

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 118 km
MMI III ≤ 50 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1

4.5Near N Coast of New Guinea, Png.10 Oct 2026, 09:43 UTC

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 14%, and of magnitude 5 or more 2%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 36%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	36%≈ 0.56	62%≈ 1.62	74%≈ 2.64
M ≥ 4	5%≈ 0.06	14%≈ 0.16	21%≈ 0.26
M ≥ 5	0.6%≈ <0.01	2%≈ 0.02	3%≈ 0.03
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ <0.01	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.3%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.6 or more).

Computed: 11 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.968)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
USGS ★	4.6MB	10 Oct 2026, 09:42:58 UTC	—	30.4 km	—	31 km SE of Vanimo, Papua New Guinea
GFZ	4.5MB	10 Oct 2026, 09:42:59 UTC	+0.1 s	10.0 km	23.3 km	New Guinea, Papua New Guinea