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Magnitude 4.2 earthquake · M15 km al SURESTE de PARRILLA 1RA.SEC, TAB

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell
When
21 hr ago
Depth
8.0 km
From you
Source
SSN, Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM (ssn.unam.mx)
Automatic
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

15 km al SURESTE de PARRILLA 1RA.SEC, TABNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 81 km
  • MMI III ≤ 38 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 16 km
  • MMI V ≤ 3.2 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

No aftershocks recorded yet.

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 2%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.2%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 6%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 36%≈ 0.0614%≈ 0.1821%≈ 0.30
M ≥ 40.6%≈ <0.012%≈ 0.023%≈ 0.03
M ≥ 5<0.1%≈ <0.010.2%≈ <0.010.3%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.00

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.2 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.663)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
USGS4.2MB−2.6 s10.0 km10.8 km4 km W of Aquiles Serdán 1ra. Sección, Mexico
EMSC4.2M−2.6 s10.0 km10.8 kmTABASCO, MEXICO
SSN ★4.2M—8.0 km—15 km al SURESTE de PARRILLA 1RA.SEC, TAB
Revision history (1)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.2M8.0 km17.782°N 92.874°W