Magnitude 4.5 earthquake · MPanama

IVExpected intensity: Light: windows, doors and dishes rattled

When: 17 hr ago; 10 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC
Depth: 22.0 km
From you
Source: EMSC; Automatic

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 108 km
MMI III ≤ 46 km
MMI IV ≤ 10 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 4%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.4%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 12%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	12%≈ 0.15	25%≈ 0.41	34%≈ 0.65
M ≥ 4	1%≈ 0.02	4%≈ 0.04	6%≈ 0.07
M ≥ 5	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.4%≈ <0.01	0.6%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.5 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.655)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	4.5M	10 Oct 2026, 00:10:42 UTC	—	22.0 km	—	PANAMA