Magnitude 4.9 earthquake · MB9 km SW of Río Grande, Panama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell

When: 2 hr ago; 9 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC
Depth: 10.0 km
From you
Source: USGS; Reviewed

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 165 km
MMI III ≤ 75 km
MMI IV ≤ 35 km
MMI V ≤ 15 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 4

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 49%, and of magnitude 5 or more 9%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 84%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	84%≈ 5.46	92%≈ 9.99	94%≈ 14
M ≥ 4	34%≈ 0.55	49%≈ 1.00	56%≈ 1.36
M ≥ 5	5%≈ 0.06	9%≈ 0.10	12%≈ 0.14
M ≥ 6	0.5%≈ <0.01	1.0%≈ 0.01	1%≈ 0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (1 of M3.9 or more).

Computed: 10 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.774)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
USGS ★	4.9MB	9 Oct 2026, 23:23:13 UTC	—	10.0 km	—	9 km SW of Río Grande, Panama
EMSC	4.9MB	9 Oct 2026, 23:23:13 UTC	±0.0 s	10.0 km	0.0 km	PANAMA
GFZ	4.9MB	9 Oct 2026, 23:23:13 UTC	+0.7 s	10.0 km	14.7 km	Panama