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Magnitude 5.0 earthquake · MB8 km ESE of La Tronosa, Panama

VIExpected intensity: Strong: everyone frightened, furniture moved, plaster fell
When
2 hr ago
Depth
10.0 km
From you
Source
USGS
Reviewed
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

8 km ESE of La Tronosa, PanamaNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 186 km
  • MMI III ≤ 87 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 40 km
  • MMI V ≤ 18 km
  • MMI VI ≤ 0.5 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 40 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 20%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 50%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 350%≈ 1.5863%≈ 2.9369%≈ 4.01
M ≥ 412%≈ 0.1620%≈ 0.2924%≈ 0.40
M ≥ 52%≈ 0.023%≈ 0.034%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 60.2%≈ <0.010.3%≈ <0.010.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M4.0 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.575)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
USGS ★5.0MB—10.0 km—8 km ESE of La Tronosa, Panama
EMSC5.0MB±0.0 s10.0 km0.0 kmPANAMA
GFZ5.0MB+0.5 s10.0 km7.3 kmPanama
Revision history (2)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC5.0MB12.0 km7.606°N 80.413°W
EMSC5.3M12.0 km7.606°N 80.413°W