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Magnitude 4.1 earthquake · MPanama

VExpected intensity: Moderate: felt by nearly everyone, small objects fell
When
3 hr ago
Depth
5.0 km
From you
Source
EMSC
Automatic
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

PanamaNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 69 km
  • MMI III ≤ 33 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 16 km
  • MMI V ≤ 6.3 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 2

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 3%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.4%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 14%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 314%≈ 0.1922%≈ 0.3627%≈ 0.49
M ≥ 42%≈ 0.023%≈ 0.044%≈ 0.05
M ≥ 50.2%≈ <0.010.4%≈ <0.010.5%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.00

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.1 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.579)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC ★4.1M—5.0 km—PANAMA
Revision history (1)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC3.9M10.0 km7.725°N 80.682°W