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Magnitude 4.9 earthquake · MB8 km SSE of Leones Arriba, Panama

When
20 hr ago
Depth
10.0 km
From you
Source
USGS
Reviewed
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

8 km SSE of Leones Arriba, PanamaNatural Earth

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 5

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 43%, and of magnitude 5 or more 6%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 77%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 377%≈ 2.3094%≈ 6.6497%≈ 11
M ≥ 419%≈ 0.2343%≈ 0.6657%≈ 1.09
M ≥ 52%≈ 0.026%≈ 0.0710%≈ 0.11
M ≥ 60.2%≈ <0.010.7%≈ <0.011%≈ 0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

3 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (2 of M3.9 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -1.569)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC5.1MB+0.8 s15.0 km1.7 kmPANAMA
USGS ★4.9MB—10.0 km—8 km SSE of Leones Arriba, Panama
GFZ5.2MB+0.1 s10.0 km6.1 kmPanama
Revision history (5)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.9MB10.0 km7.677°N 81.092°W
EMSC5.2MB15.0 km7.678°N 81.020°W
EMSC5.1MB15.0 km7.678°N 81.020°W
GFZ5.1MB10.0 km7.654°N 80.988°W
EMSC5.1MB10.0 km7.654°N 80.988°W