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4.9

13 km SE of Yokoshiba, Japan

· 3 hr ago

Magnitude
4.9 MWW
Depth
50.6 km
UTC
7 Oct 2026, 19:13:47
Coordinates
35.560°N 140.583°E
Preferred source
USGS
Sources
USGS, EMSC, GFZ
Felt reports
0
Revision
Reviewed by an analyst
Nearest active fault
~41 km, unknown type (Tokyowan-hokuen)GEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

13 km SE of Yokoshiba, JapanNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 161 km
  • MMI III ≤ 57 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
USGS ★4.9MWW—50.6 km—13 km SE of Yokoshiba, Japan
EMSC4.9MW±0.0 s50.6 km0.0 kmNEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
GFZ5.0MB+2.0 s60.9 km7.6 kmNear East Coast of Honshu, Japan
Revision history (5)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC5.0MB50.0 km35.660°N 140.670°E
EMSC5.0MB60.9 km35.518°N 140.517°E
GFZ5.1MB66.1 km35.533°N 140.556°E
EMSC5.0MB46.0 km35.579°N 140.578°E
EMSC5.0MB66.1 km35.533°N 140.556°E

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 23%, and of magnitude 5 or more 3%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 60%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 360%≈ 1.6875%≈ 3.1681%≈ 4.36
M ≥ 414%≈ 0.1723%≈ 0.3229%≈ 0.44
M ≥ 52%≈ 0.023%≈ 0.034%≈ 0.04
M ≥ 60.2%≈ <0.010.3%≈ <0.010.4%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.9 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-DEEPCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.258)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1