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Magnitude 5.0 earthquake · M102 km al SUROESTE de MAPASTEPEC, CHIS

VIExpected intensity: Strong: everyone frightened, furniture moved, plaster fell
When
3 days ago
Depth
10.0 km
From you
Source
SSN, Instituto de Geofísica, UNAM (ssn.unam.mx)
Automatic
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

102 km al SUROESTE de MAPASTEPEC, CHISNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 186 km
  • MMI III ≤ 87 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 40 km
  • MMI V ≤ 18 km
  • MMI VI ≤ 0.5 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 40 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 4

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 5%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.5%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 11%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 311%≈ 0.1332%≈ 0.5646%≈ 1.12
M ≥ 41%≈ 0.015%≈ 0.0610%≈ 0.11
M ≥ 50.1%≈ <0.010.5%≈ <0.011%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ <0.010.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M4.0 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.702)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC4.9MB+1.8 s61.0 km33.9 kmOFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
GFZ5.1MB−1.0 s30.0 km37.9 kmNear Coast of Chiapas, Mexico
USGS4.9MB+0.5 s61.7 km12.5 km80 km SW of El Arenal, Mexico
SSN ★5.0M—10.0 km—102 km al SUROESTE de MAPASTEPEC, CHIS
Revision history (7)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.9MB61.7 km14.621°N 93.189°W
EMSC5.0MB61.0 km14.885°N 93.016°W
GFZ5.0MB10.0 km14.803°N 93.108°W
EMSC5.0MB61.0 km14.921°N 93.039°W
EMSC5.0M61.0 km14.921°N 93.039°W
EMSC5.0MW61.0 km14.921°N 93.039°W
EMSC5.0M61.0 km14.921°N 93.039°W