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Deprem

Magnitude 4.8 earthquake · MPusat gempa berada di darat 31 km tenggara Yalimo

When
4 days ago
Depth
50.0 km
From you
Source
BMKG
Automatic
Did you feel it? Report

Expected intensity

Pusat gempa berada di darat 31 km tenggara YalimoNatural Earth

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

No aftershocks recorded yet.

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 4%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.5%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 9%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 39%≈ 0.1031%≈ 0.4649%≈ 0.98
M ≥ 41%≈ 0.014%≈ 0.059%≈ 0.10
M ≥ 50.1%≈ <0.010.5%≈ <0.011.0%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.000.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.8 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-DEEPCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.378)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC4.9MB−3.4 s59.0 km26.9 kmPAPUA, INDONESIA
USGS4.9MB−2.0 s80.2 km18.7 km189 km SW of Abepura, Indonesia
BMKG ★4.8M—50.0 km—Pusat gempa berada di darat 31 km tenggara Yalimo
Revision history (3)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
EMSC4.9MB80.2 km3.944°S 139.572°E
USGS4.8MB62.1 km3.857°S 139.466°E
EMSC4.8MB62.1 km3.857°S 139.466°E