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5.1

111 km Tenggara SELAYAR-SULSEL

· 6 days ago

Magnitude
5.1 M
Depth
10.0 km
UTC
1 Oct 2026, 14:20:00
Coordinates
7.070°S 120.800°E
Preferred source
BMKG
Sources
BMKG, GFZ
Felt reports
0
Revision
Automatic solution
Nearest active fault
No mapped active fault within 50 kmGEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

111 km Tenggara SELAYAR-SULSELNatural Earth
  • MMI II ≤ 200 km
  • MMI III ≤ 100 km
  • MMI IV ≤ 46 km
  • MMI V ≤ 20 km
  • MMI VI ≤ 5.0 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
BMKG ★5.1M—10.0 km—111 km Tenggara SELAYAR-SULSEL
GFZ4.9MW+0.9 s10.0 km15.8 kmFlores Sea
Revision history (3)
SourceMagnitudeTimeDepthCoordinatesReceived
BMKG5.1M10.0 km7.070°S 120.800°E
GFZ5.1MB10.0 km7.205°S 120.845°E
GFZ5.1MB10.0 km7.221°S 120.849°E

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 4%, and of magnitude 5 or more 0.4%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 8%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 38%≈ 0.0927%≈ 0.4445%≈ 1.02
M ≥ 40.9%≈ <0.014%≈ 0.049%≈ 0.10
M ≥ 5<0.1%≈ <0.010.4%≈ <0.011%≈ 0.01
M ≥ 6<0.1%≈ 0.00<0.1%≈ 0.000.1%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

1 aftershock recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M4.1 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.721)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 40 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1