280 km SW of Houma, Tonga

1 Oct 2026, 04:41:16 UTC · 7 days ago

Magnitude: 4.2 MB
Depth: 247.0 km
UTC: 1 Oct 2026, 04:41:16
Coordinates: 22.869°S 177.310°W
Preferred source: USGS
Sources: USGS, EMSC, GFZ
Felt reports: 0
Revision: Reviewed by an analyst
Nearest active fault: ~45 km, Spreading_RidgeGEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
GFZ	4.1MB	1 Oct 2026, 04:41:19 UTC	+3.0 s	259.0 km	10.8 km	South of Fiji Islands
EMSC	4.2MB	1 Oct 2026, 04:41:17 UTC	+1.7 s	281.0 km	22.4 km	SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
USGS ★	4.2MB	1 Oct 2026, 04:41:16 UTC	—	247.0 km	—	280 km SW of Houma, Tonga

Revision history (1)

Source	Magnitude	Time	Depth	Coordinates	Received
EMSC	4.2MB	1 Oct 2026, 04:41:16 UTC	247.0 km	22.869°S 177.310°W	1 Oct 2026, 05:42:04 UTC

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 0.8%, and of magnitude 5 or more <0.1%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 1%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	1%≈ 0.02	7%≈ 0.08	16%≈ 0.19
M ≥ 4	0.2%≈ <0.01	0.8%≈ <0.01	2%≈ 0.02
M ≥ 5	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ <0.01	0.2%≈ <0.01
M ≥ 6	0%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ 0.00	<0.1%≈ 0.00

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M3.2 or more).

Computed: 7 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-DEEPCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.393)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow local authorities for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 20 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

No aftershocks recorded yet.