LOYALTY ISLANDS

26 Sept 2026, 01:58:31 · 2 days ago

Magnitude: 5.1 MB
Depth: 10.0 km
UTC: 25 Sept 2026, 22:58:31
Coordinates: 21.240°S 168.502°E
Preferred source: EMSC
Sources: EMSC
Felt reports: 0
Revision: Automatic solution
Nearest active fault: ~32 km, Subduction_ThrustGEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 128 km
MMI III ≤ 54 km
MMI IV ≤ 22 km
MMI V ≤ 12 km
MMI VI ≤ 5.9 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC ★	5.1MB	26 Sept 2026, 01:58:31	—	10.0 km	—	LOYALTY ISLANDS

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 91%, and of magnitude 5 or more 24%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 99%.

A larger earthquake followed this one; this one may have been a foreshock. Go to the larger earthquake

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	99%≈ 7.00	100%≈ 28	100%≈ 54
M ≥ 4	49%≈ 0.70	91%≈ 2.80	99%≈ 5.43
M ≥ 5	7%≈ 0.07	24%≈ 0.28	41%≈ 0.54
M ≥ 6	0.7%≈ <0.01	3%≈ 0.03	5%≈ 0.05

≈ expected number of aftershocks

9 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (9 of M4.1 or more).

Computed: 28 Sept 2026, 12:57. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-SHALCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -0.82)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow AFAD for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 40 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 31