139 km SW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea

24 Sept 2026, 15:29:58 · 3 hr ago

Magnitude: 5.2 MB
Depth: 95.6 km
UTC: 24 Sept 2026, 12:29:58
Coordinates: 5.340°S 151.492°E
Preferred source: USGS
Sources: USGS, EMSC
Felt reports: 0
Revision: Reviewed by an analyst
Nearest active fault: No mapped active fault within 50 kmGEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

MMI II ≤ 150 km
MMI III ≤ 59 km
MMI IV ≤ 24 km
MMI V ≤ 13 km
MMI VI ≤ 6.8 km

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

Source	Magnitude	Time	Δ time	Depth	Δ location	Place
EMSC	5.2MB	24 Sept 2026, 15:29:59	+0.4 s	98.5 km	2.6 km	NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
USGS ★	5.2MB	24 Sept 2026, 15:29:58	—	95.6 km	—	139 km SW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea

Revision history (1)

Source	Magnitude	Time	Depth	Coordinates	Received
EMSC	5.2MB	24 Sept 2026, 15:29:58	95.6 km	5.340°S 151.492°E	24 Sept 2026, 15:45:10

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 36%, and of magnitude 5 or more 6%.

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 75%.

Magnitude	1 day	1 week	1 month
M ≥ 3	75%≈ 3.20	86%≈ 6.10	91%≈ 8.46
M ≥ 4	23%≈ 0.32	36%≈ 0.61	44%≈ 0.85
M ≥ 5	3%≈ 0.03	6%≈ 0.06	8%≈ 0.09
M ≥ 6	0.3%≈ <0.01	0.6%≈ <0.01	0.8%≈ <0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 10 km (0 of M4.2 or more).

Computed: 24 Sept 2026, 18:26. Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-DEEPCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.262)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow AFAD for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 40 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

No aftershocks recorded yet.