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6.4

49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea

· 4 days ago

Magnitude
6.4 MWW
Depth
104.3 km
UTC
20 Sept 2026, 09:17:35
Coordinates
5.902°S 146.092°E
Preferred source
USGS
Sources
USGS, EMSC
Felt reports
0
Revision
Reviewed by an analyst
Nearest active fault
~16 km, reverseGEM Global Active Faults (Styron & Pagani 2020), CC BY-SA 4.0

Expected intensity

Natural Earth

Rings show the expected Modified Mercalli (MMI) intensity from the Akkar–Sandıkkaya–Bommer (2014) ground-motion model converted with Worden et al. (2012). Real shaking depends on soil and building.

Felt reports

No reports yet.

Did you feel it? Report

Source comparison

Latest solution of each source. Differences are to the preferred solution.

SourceMagnitudeTimeΔ timeDepthΔ locationPlace
EMSC6.4MW20 Sept 2026, 12:17:35+0.3 s101.2 km3.4 kmEASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
USGS ★6.4MWW20 Sept 2026, 12:17:35—104.3 km—49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea

Aftershock forecast

The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 4 or more in the next 7 days is 41%, and of magnitude 5 or more 6%.
The chance of an aftershock of magnitude 3 or more in the next 24 hours is 63%.
Magnitude1 day1 week1 month
M ≥ 363%≈ 1.3294%≈ 6.0999%≈ 13
M ≥ 412%≈ 0.1341%≈ 0.6163%≈ 1.32
M ≥ 51%≈ 0.016%≈ 0.0612%≈ 0.13
M ≥ 60.1%≈ <0.010.6%≈ <0.011%≈ 0.01

≈ expected number of aftershocks

0 aftershocks recorded so far within 16 km (0 of M4.5 or more).

Computed: . Method: Reasenberg-Jones (generic, Bayesian a-value update); regime ANSR-DEEPCON; generic parameters Page et al. (2016) via USGS OpenSHA GenericRJ_ParametersFetch.json. Probabilities are updated with the recorded aftershocks on every request. (b = 1, p = 0.98, c = 0.018 days, a = -2.746)

This is a statistical forecast, not an earthquake prediction. Actual aftershock activity can differ; follow AFAD for official statements.

Aftershocks

Earthquakes within 80 km of the epicentre in the first 30 days.

Count: 1